Dáil Éireann General Election
November 2024
Dáil Éireann General Election
November 2024
After 12 months of late-night data crunching and 8-hour Caffè Nero sessions, I have finally completed my constituency-by-constituency analysis for the 2024 General Election for Dáil Éireann. In the linked spreadsheet, you can view a detailed breakdown of where each of the 3,689,896 votes cast went, through transfers and surpluses and eliminations. The full spreadsheet can be found at the button to your right, or you can click on any of the buttons below to bring you straight to a constituency of your choice. As always, if you spot any discrepancies or have any questions, feel free to reach out to me at jamiepmce@gmail.com, or send me a message on any social media platform where we may be mutuals! Happy browsing!
(due to the size of some of the graphs, maps, and charts, this page is best viewed on a desktop or laptop screen)
Analysis of GE2024 Data
The following analysis looks at everything from voter turnout, to spoilt ballots, to quotas and counts, mostly comprises of fun facts, but there may be a few interesting connections drawn between results and trends in the electoral process.
Highest and Lowest Quotas on the First Count
Every election reveals its share of anomalies and outliers, and 2024 was no different. Pearse Doherty of Sinn Féin topped the national leaderboard with a first count quota multiple of 1.4797 in Donegal, the highest in the country. Just behind him was outgoing Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader, Simon Harris in Wicklow, with a near-identical quota of 1.4777. Rounding out the top three was independent Michael Healy-Rae in Kerry with a quota of 1.42, a figure that showcases his populist rural political dynasty.
Highest and Lowest Quotas on the First Count
At the other end of the scale, several candidates managed to secure election despite beginning well below the quota threshold. Simon Harris’s running mate, Edward Timmins of Fine Gael in Wicklow was elected with just 0.27 of a quota on the first count, the lowest among all successful candidates. Close behind was Limerick City’s Conor Sheehan of the Labour Party on 0.32, followed by independent Barry Heneghan in Dublin Bay North (0.33) and Labour’s Eoghan Kenny in Cork North Central (0.34). These figures prove that transfers can change the scene in a constituency completely from the first count to the last.
Most Successful Constituency for the Outgoing Government
Only one constituency returned an entirely government-aligned delegation: Cork North-West. The constituency elected two Fianna Fáil TDs and one Fine Gael TD, giving the governing coalition a clean sweep in that part of Munster. This result continued a trend of no party other than Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael ever winning a seat in that constituency.
Longest and Shortest Counts
While some contests were resolved swiftly, others became prolonged affairs as surpluses and eliminations cascaded through the counting process. The longest count of the 2024 General Election occurred in the 5-seat constituency of Louth, which went to 20 rounds before all seats were filled. It was followed closely by Cork South-Central, where the process extended to 18 counts, followed by Carlow–Kilkenny, Clare, Donegal, Longford–Westmeath, and Limerick City, all jointly requiring 15 counts.
In sharp contrast, Meath West completed its count in just five rounds, the fastest in the country. Meath West’s swiftness is largely due to the relatively low number of candidates, with only 12 individuals contesting the 3 seats. Notably, this constituency also saw the most eliminations in a single round, with the second count seeing the redistribution of the votes of the 6 lowest-ranking candidates. This occurs due to rules under our PR-STV system.
Multiple candidates can be eliminated in a single count when their combined votes cannot mathematically change the outcome of the election. The two occasions where this would occur are when a candidate's votes would not be able to save the lowest candidate from elimination (i.e. push the candidate in last place into second last after the redistribution of votes), or push the top candidate over the quota. Batch eliminations are permitted because even if the lowest candidates’ votes were fully transferred, they would still not overtake the next candidate. Rather than wasting time on separate eliminations, the returning officer distributes their votes collectively in a single round. This can speed up the conclusion of the count without affecting the final result, as it does not alter who can still reach the quota. Similarly, this is why if a candidate reaches the quota on a count, but by a margin that could not save the lowest candidate or elect the next in line, their surplus is set aside and may be dealt with at a later count if it would have an effect on the result. Looking back at Meath West, 1,760 votes (the total of the lowest 5 candidates would have had no effect on the top or bottom candidate, but 2,328 votes (combined total of lowest 6) would have.
Most Votes Redistributed in a Surplus
The single largest surplus redistribution of the 2024 election came from Pearse Doherty in Donegal, who recorded a surplus of 6,127 votes on the second count. Such a figure highlights the scale of his first-preference dominance and the significant influence his transfers had on shaping the rest of the contest.
Turnout Trends
Turnout varied sharply across constituencies. Wicklow recorded the highest turnout at 67.8%, which is a sign of strong voter mobilisation in a constituency that often features high-profile contests and well-organised campaigns. On the flip side, Dublin Bay-South registered the lowest turnout at just 47.8%, which can be read as both voter fatigue among the electorate and the challenges of engagement in urban, transient electorates. Something to note is that DBS was the most recent constituency to go to the polls before the 2024 General Election, with a by-election occurring in July 2021 to fill the seat vacated by the resignation of Fine Gael housing minister, Eoghan Murphy, the sole by-election during the 33rd Dáil. This may or may not have had an impact on voter turnout.
Highest and Lowest Spoilt Vote Shares
Louth, which experienced one of the most protracted counts of the election, also saw the highest proportion of spoilt votes relative to turnout, at 0.64%. Meanwhile, Dublin Bay-South had the lowest rate of spoiled ballots at 0.23%, continuing a pattern seen in several recent contests where urban constituencies tend to record fewer invalid ballots.
Candidates with the Highest First-Preference Vote Without Winning
Several candidates fell short of election despite strong first-preference showings. The most striking example was Fiona O’Loughlin of Fianna Fáil in Kildare South, who polled 17.44% of first preferences but did not secure a seat. She was followed by Fine Gael’s Michael Creed in Cork North-West on 17.09% and Sinn Féin’s Aoife Masterson in Offaly on 16.61%. Each case illustrates how the proportional system can penalise candidates whose local vote concentration is insufficient to meet the quota, particularly in constituencies where strong multi-party competition fragments transfers.
The Unsuccessful Incumbents
Among those with the highest first-preference performances to lose their seats was Fine Gael’s Alan Farrell in the newly created Dublin Fingal East constituency, who secured 14.19% of the vote but was ultimately edged out on transfers. In Dublin Bay South, Sinn Féin’s Chris Andrews polled 12.25% of first preferences but failed to hold his seat in what became one of the more unpredictable urban races. Likewise, in Tipperary South, Sinn Féin’s Martin Browne lost out despite a solid 12.02% share of the first count vote.
The election also produced a string of high-profile ministerial defeats. Two senior ministers lost their seats: Health Minister Stephen Donnelly in Wicklow, who narrowly missed out on the final seat to Fine Gael’s Edward Timmins, and Green Party Deputy Leader Catherine Martin, who was eliminated on the tenth count in Dublin Rathdown. Their exits marked a major setback for both coalition parties and signalled voter fatigue with government figures in several suburban constituencies.
They were joined by four junior ministers who also failed to retain their seats: Malcolm Noonan (Green Party, Carlow–Kilkenny), Joe O’Brien (Green, Dublin Fingal West), Ossian Smyth (Green, Dún Laoghaire), and Anne Rabbitte (Fianna Fáil, Galway East). The cumulative effect of these losses weakened the government’s frontbench presence and reflected the difficult electoral environment faced by coalition parties, particularly the Greens, who saw their representation almost eliminated entirely. In total, 26 incumbent TDs lost the seats that they won in 2020.
Perhaps the most striking individual result came in Clare, where Independent and former Sinn Féin TD Violette Anne Wynne recorded just 0.51% of first-preference votes, what I believe to be the lowest share ever achieved by an incumbent TD in Irish electoral history.
Maps!
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