After 12 months of late-night data crunching and 8-hour Caffè Nero sessions, I have finally completed my constituency-by-constituency analysis for the 2024 General Election for Dáil Éireann. In the linked spreadsheet, you can view a detailed breakdown of where each of the 3,689,896 votes cast went, through transfers and surpluses and eliminations. The full spreadsheet can be found at the button to your right, or you can click on any of the buttons below to bring you straight to a constituency of your choice. As always, if you spot any discrepancies or have any questions, feel free to reach out to me at jamiepmce@gmail.com, or send me a message on any social media platform where we may be mutuals! Happy browsing!

(due to the size of some of the graphs, maps, and charts, this page is best viewed on a desktop or laptop screen)

The following analysis looks at everything from voter turnout, to spoilt ballots, to quotas and counts, mostly comprises of fun facts, but there may be a few interesting connections drawn between results and trends in the electoral process. 

Most Successful Constituency for the Outgoing Government

Only one constituency returned an entirely government-aligned delegation: Cork North-West. The constituency elected two Fianna Fáil TDs and one Fine Gael TD, giving the governing coalition a clean sweep in that part of Munster. This result continued a trend of no party other than Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael ever winning a seat in that constituency. 

Multiple candidates can be eliminated in a single count when their combined votes cannot mathematically change the outcome of the election. The two occasions where this would occur are when a candidate's votes would not be able to save the lowest candidate from elimination (i.e. push the candidate in last place into second last after the redistribution of votes), or push the top candidate over the quota. Batch eliminations are permitted because even if the lowest candidates’ votes were fully transferred, they would still not overtake the next candidate. Rather than wasting time on separate eliminations, the returning officer distributes their votes collectively in a single round. This can speed up the conclusion of the count without affecting the final result, as it does not alter who can still reach the quota. Similarly, this is why if a candidate reaches the quota on a count, but by a margin that could not save the lowest candidate or elect the next in line, their surplus is set aside and may be dealt with at a later count if it would have an effect on the result. Looking back at Meath West, 1,760 votes (the total of the lowest 5 candidates would have had no effect on the top or bottom candidate, but 2,328 votes (combined total of lowest 6) would have. 

Most Votes Redistributed in a Surplus

The single largest surplus redistribution of the 2024 election came from Pearse Doherty in Donegal, who recorded a surplus of 6,127 votes on the second count. Such a figure highlights the scale of his first-preference dominance and the significant influence his transfers had on shaping the rest of the contest.

Highest and Lowest Spoilt Vote Shares

Louth, which experienced one of the most protracted counts of the election, also saw the highest proportion of spoilt votes relative to turnout, at 0.64%. Meanwhile, Dublin Bay-South had the lowest rate of spoiled ballots at 0.23%, continuing a pattern seen in several recent contests where urban constituencies tend to record fewer invalid ballots.

The Unsuccessful Incumbents

Among those with the highest first-preference performances to lose their seats was Fine Gael’s Alan Farrell in the newly created Dublin Fingal East constituency, who secured 14.19% of the vote but was ultimately edged out on transfers. In Dublin Bay South, Sinn Féin’s Chris Andrews polled 12.25% of first preferences but failed to hold his seat in what became one of the more unpredictable urban races. Likewise, in Tipperary South, Sinn Féin’s Martin Browne lost out despite a solid 12.02% share of the first count vote.

The election also produced a string of high-profile ministerial defeats. Two senior ministers lost their seats: Health Minister Stephen Donnelly in Wicklow, who narrowly missed out on the final seat to Fine Gael’s Edward Timmins, and Green Party Deputy Leader Catherine Martin, who was eliminated on the tenth count in Dublin Rathdown. Their exits marked a major setback for both coalition parties and signalled voter fatigue with government figures in several suburban constituencies.

They were joined by four junior ministers who also failed to retain their seats: Malcolm Noonan (Green Party, Carlow–Kilkenny), Joe O’Brien (Green, Dublin Fingal West), Ossian Smyth (Green, Dún Laoghaire), and Anne Rabbitte (Fianna Fáil, Galway East). The cumulative effect of these losses weakened the government’s frontbench presence and reflected the difficult electoral environment faced by coalition parties, particularly the Greens, who saw their representation almost eliminated entirely. In total, 26 incumbent TDs lost the seats that they won in 2020. 

Perhaps the most striking individual result came in Clare, where Independent and former Sinn Féin TD Violette Anne Wynne recorded just 0.51% of first-preference votes, what I believe to be the lowest share ever achieved by an incumbent TD in Irish electoral history.